Hey everyone unexceptional rounder here and

today I’ve got a video for you about

probability

payout and odds one of the most fundamental

concepts in poker

this video will lay the foundation for

much more advanced topics in the future

with that said let’s get started

probability

ever answered the weather man say that

there’s going to be a 70 percent chance

of rain

or rain is likely unlikely chance of fair

skies chance of clouds

everything has a chance nothing’s for

certain that’s where probability comes into

play

in the weather it happens all the time

and in poker we use probability

to determine winning situations and

losing situations

let’s look at some different ways that

you can express probability and what it

really means

probability simply put is the chance

that a given event

will occur

we look at this weather chart

we see that there are different

probabilities

expressed as percentages for various

wind speeds

affecting various parts of the country

this is probability

expressed as a percentage there are a

lot of other ways to express probability

let’s talk about a few of them

probability

can be expressed as odds these odds would

read

three to one, five to four, twenty five to seventy five

as we discussed previously can be

expressed as a percentage

25 percent fifty percent seventy five

percent etc.

fractions which may look similar

to

odds would be said one out of four five

out of nine

25 out of 100 or five ninths

notice that 25 out of 100

means that the event will occur twenty

five times

out of a total possible 100 opportunities

whereas

when we speak of odds 25 to 75

would be the equivalent meaning it will

happen

25 times and it won’t happen 75 times

the last way of expressing probability that

I’ll talk about today is with words

impossible even chance unlikely likely

they’re all ways of expressing probability

but they’re not exact and they’re not

numbers so we’re going to leave them out of poker for

the most part but feel free to keep

using it in everyday conversation

so now we understand probability better

we know that it is the chance an event

will occur and it can be expressed using

words

odds percentages or fractions now

let’s go ahead and talk about another

concept

Payouts

there are different forms of payouts you

may have seen payouts on

the top of blackjack tables or other

casino games

there’s payouts in poker there’s payouts in

poker tournaments there’s payouts in cash

games

all a payout really is is how much you win

compared to the amount that you bet

so the payout is how much you get for

each bet and again just like probability

payouts can be expressed in a few different

ways as well let’s talk about a few of them

first we’ll go over the simple

definition a payout

which is the expected financial return

on investment pretty much what we were

talking about before

although blackjack as much an investment

the next one we’ll discuss

is odds notice that we were also able to

express probability using odds

interesting so odds would be expressed

as

three to one four to three one to five

now when we talk about odds

and payouts it’s a little different than

odds and probabilities

here we’re looking at the amount we win

compared to the amount we bet

so you’ll see that I’ve got win to bet

here

so the catchy little saying I came up

with was

the amount you get to the amount you bet

awesome cause it rhymes right

so now take a look at the scorecard for

a horse race which

I know very little about but I do know

little bit about odds

so looking at this card or Pay out or

whatever it is we can see that there’s

different payouts for different bets

the harder the thing is to predict the

more you win

predicting the top three gets you a huge

payoff of 477.8 to 2 dollars

so that’s pretty pretty good odds but

that has nothing to do with the

probability that you actually pick those

three numbers right

so that’s where you compare the odds to

the probability

and you look for mismatch you look for

somebody offering you

better pay out of odds than you have

probability odds when you get a mismatch

that’s where you make money

that’s how bookies make money that’s how

casinos make money you have to

understand this concept to make money

playing poker

if you were talking about the stock market

than your payout would probably be

expressed as a percentage

you know here many people talk about the

stock market in the form of odds or

fractions

usually hear their gains as percentages

as well as the losses

so what this shows that depending on what

you’re talking about. there are more

appropriate ways to express payouts and

probabilities based on what you’re doing

the last one I’ll mention really quickly is

words again

just like probability you can express

odds as words

big medium small you know you won a 10

bagger which actually relates to a

number which means that

your stock went up ten times your

original investment or 1000 percent

but again just like with probability

were not really interested in using

words

in poker like this

were going to use actual numbers

so that covers payouts as you can see

payouts and probabilities can be

expressed in various ways

in poker payouts are best described only

as

odds so payout think pot odds

because that’s really your payout in a

poker game is what’s in the pot

and again remember that catchy saying

the amount you get

to the amount you bet

now I wanna try to explain why it makes

sense to use odds for everything

I mean it kinda makes sense intuitively because

you don’t want to be mixing percentages

odds fractions when you’re trying to do

math in your head at the table

so what we want to do is get on the same

page with our payout

and our probability in the form of odds

when we talk payout odds we’ll express it

that as the win amount

to the bed amount as in the amount in

the pot

to the amount that you have to call

or the amount you’re betting depending

on what we’re talking about

if we talk probability odds it’ll be

expressed as

will not win to will win as in

the number on the left is going to be

the times you don’t win and the number

on the right

will be the times you do win this’ll be

explained

or make sense a little bit more in the

future but for now

we’re just going to go with it these are

called odds against

you want to match up your odds against

to the payout odds

this example should help you understand

it a little bit better

using odds for both probability and

payout is a good thing

and this example should show you why it’s

so much

easier coin toss what’s the probability

of coin landing on heads I shouldn’t have to

say this but I’m going to the

answer’s not fifty percent because we

don’t talk about percentages

when we talk about odds so what is the

probability

of a coin landing on heads got your

answer?

alright if you said the odds of landing

on heads are one to one

than you’re correct now if we look at

one to one

the first one is the times that won’t

happen

or the times that it comes up tales and the

second one

is the times that comes up heads so the

will knots

to the Wills are one to one

now taking this problem one step further

we can ask

what odds are needed for a profitable bet

as in what pot size do you need

to make money on a one dollar bet since there are no half pennies we’ll round to the

nearest one cent

for a one dollar bet getting 1:1 odds

to make money you need the pot to be at

least a dollar

and one cent a dollar and a penny

anything less than that and you’re not

going to make any money

to you take this one step further which

I didn’t really plan on getting to in

this video

but is important the higher the pot size

the more money you make as in the bigger

edge you have

on that bed if there’s a dollar and ten

cents in the pot

you now have a 10 percent edge because

you’re actually making

10 percent more than the break-even

amount

little bit more than we need to go in

this video by it’s worth mentioning

and I hope that this example really

clears up why it’s so much

easier to use odds when talking about

probability

and payouts everything lines up nicely

and you can quickly determine

if the situation you’re in is profitable or not

based on your probability based on your

payout

and then make the correct play

I hope that example helps you understand

probability in payouts better

it shows you why we use odds to compare

them at the table for easy

in your head calculations when you don’t

have a lot of time

so what’s next we’re not done yet we’ve

got a lot left to learn

we know probability and payouts we still

have yet to learn about hand combinations

calculating draws calculating equity and

of course

expected value which is essentially what

you can use

to determine the correct play in any poker situation

so stay tuned if you enjoyed the video

please go ahead leave a comment let me

know what you thought

also make sure you hit the like button

if you wanna see more videos like this

make sure you subscribe

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as they come up keep an eye on my feed

all these videos are going to be

annotations as soon as they come out

for Rounder University this is unexceptional

rounder and until next time

you guys keep on grindin

I enjoyed the video but I'm more confused now than I was before watching it. Here's why:

1. You said you should express payout odds as "win amount: bet amount"

2. Then, in your example, with the dollar and the penny, you expressed it the other way around, as "bet amount: win amount."

Why did you do this?!! Was it a mistake, or is there something I'm missing!?

I really liked the video, I just wish you'd applied it to a few poker hands at the end as a demonstration.

hi everyone ,if anyone else wants to discover best online online poker course try Cranstirk Card Star Channel (just google it ) ? Ive heard some super things about it and my co-worker got great results with it.

Very helpful and basic lessons for beginners. Good job

Cool, thanks for the info! I'm brushing up for the new WSOP event, "Colossus":

http://www.wsop.com/2015/

good video but this background music is nothing but fucking distracting

Video starts at 2:33 if you didn't drop out of school at the age of 7. Start at 5:50 actually and you should be good.

Useless video that gives you a definition of probability and loosely explain it to tie in with poker.

That's a nice lesson! I recently subscribed to PokerZion to improve my poker game, and it's nice to watch video lessons like this.

It takes so long to teach you something stupid.

The fuck is this? Thumbnail shows a girl and it's a guy and this didn't teach a thing about pod odds

say you have 4 clubs…..only the river to come = 9 outs

9 x 2 = 18%=about 5 to 1

but if you are getting 3 to 1 that would be fair value right ? 4 to 1 should give you edge no ?

i came here for the girl in the picture did not find

still looking for the strategy

Does anyone knows what is the first song playing in the video? i would really appreciate it if someone help me out.

This is the best explaination ever.. I will watch it again a couple of times

If somebody is searching for poker probability they probably understand probability. Not useful.

I actually prefer to use percentages. This is a carry over from political science. Expected Utility is equal to the Possible Gain multiplied by Probability of Gain, minus the Possible Loss multiplied by Probability of loss.

Or (E)U = (PG*pg) – (PL*pl)

If (E)U is greater than zero, it's a good bet. If it's less than or equal to zero, it's a bad bet. Of course, successful use of this equation depends on accurate estimations of the probability of winning or losing.

Where the Fuck is the poker tuition ? Wasted 10 mins of my life watching this, and another 5 minutes typing this.

"You gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away, know when to run…"

where the fuck is the girl?

All in ,no problem

Thumbsup. New sub:) Hope you like my channel also.

This was a big disappointment. You gave us a 2nd grade math lesson with nothing really applicable to the table.

Where are the videos of hand combination,calculate draws and etc ?